Black bet — payout, odds and the ride
The numbers, all three wheels
| Wheel | Win probability | Hits | House edge | Std deviation / $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| European | 48.65% | 1 in 2.1 | 2.70% | 1.00 |
| American | 47.37% | 1 in 2.1 | 5.26% | 1.00 |
| French (la partage) | 48.65% | 1 in 2.1 | 1.35% | 0.99 |
Same edge, different ride
On a European wheel every bet costs the same 2.70% — what changes is volatility. The Black bet’s standard deviation is 1.00 per $1: the smoothest ride on the felt — small swings, near-coin-flip rhythm. At $10 a spin over 100 spins you should expect to pay about $27 in edge, with session swings of roughly ±$100 one standard deviation around it.
Noir — and the most famous streak in history
Black’s eighteen (2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 13, 15, 17, 20, 22, 24, 26, 28, 29, 31, 33, 35) carry the game’s best story: Monte Carlo, August 1913, when black ran 26 straight and a floor of “red is due” bettors financed the casino’s year. Mathematically noir is red’s perfect mirror — identical 48.65% win rate and 2.70% price — which is precisely why that night was fallacy, not pattern.
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