Paroli (Reverse Martingale): double after wins, reset after three — tested to destruction
CAN’T BUST, STILL PAYS THE EDGE⚙ computed
We ran 200,000 sessions of Paroli (Reverse Martingale) ($5 base on red, $500 bankroll, $500 table max, 100 spins, European wheel). Result: 0.0% of sessions busted, the median player finished at $475, and the realized house edge was 2.69% — statistically identical to the wheel’s 2.70%. A positive progression: it reshapes how you lose, never how much on average.
The distribution — what 200,000 bankrolls did
| Metric | Value | Read it as |
|---|---|---|
| Bust rate | 0.0% | sessions that hit $0 within 100 spins |
| Hit the table max | 0.0% | the cap the system pretends doesn’t exist |
| Median finish | $475 | the typical session — a slow bleed |
| 10th / 90th percentile | $355 / $605 | the bad night vs the good night |
| Mean finish | $477 | the average — always below $500, by exactly the edge |
| Avg max drawdown | $123 | the hole you sit in along the way |
| Realized edge | 2.69% | vs the wheel’s 2.70% — the punchline |
Change the conditions — the price stays
| Variation | Bust rate | Median |
|---|---|---|
| Standard (above) | 0.0% | $475 |
| Double bankroll ($1,000) | 0.0% | $975 |
| Short session (50 spins) | 0.0% | $485 |
| Long session (200 spins) | 0.0% | $450 |
First 12 spins, played by the book
| # | Bet | Result | Bankroll |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $5 | 0 | $495 |
| 2 | $5 | R | $500 |
| 3 | $10 | B | $490 |
| 4 | $5 | R | $495 |
| 5 | $10 | B | $485 |
| 6 | $5 | B | $480 |
| 7 | $5 | R | $485 |
| 8 | $10 | R | $495 |
| 9 | $20 | B | $475 |
| 10 | $5 | R | $480 |
| 11 | $10 | R | $490 |
| 12 | $20 | B | $470 |
▶ Run Paroli (Reverse Martingale) yourself — autopilot in the free simulator
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Frequently asked
Does the Paroli (Reverse Martingale) system work?
Not against the edge. Over 200,000 sessions it paid the wheel 2.69% of all money wagered — the same price as betting randomly. It changes the shape of results — you rarely bust, you just bleed the edge in small cuts.
What bankroll does Paroli (Reverse Martingale) need?
Doubling the bankroll to $1,000 moved the bust rate from 0.0% to 0.0% in our runs — barely a dent; the exposure scales with you.
Is Paroli (Reverse Martingale) good for short sessions?
At 50 spins the bust rate was 0.0% (vs 0.0% at 100). Shorter exposure means fewer disasters and less edge paid — which is true of every system, because time on the felt is the only variable that matters.