Martingale: double after every loss — tested to destruction
DOESN’T BEAT THE WHEEL⚙ computed
We ran 1,000,000 sessions of Martingale ($5 base on red, $500 bankroll, $500 table max, 100 spins, European wheel). Result: 32.6% of sessions busted, the median player finished at $690, and the realized house edge was 2.69% — statistically identical to the wheel’s 2.70%. A negative progression: it reshapes how you lose, never how much on average.
The distribution — what a million bankrolls did
| Metric | Value | Read it as |
|---|---|---|
| Bust rate | 32.6% | sessions that hit $0 within 100 spins |
| Hit the table max | 10.9% | the cap the system pretends doesn’t exist |
| Median finish | $690 | the typical session — a small win (the hook) |
| 10th / 90th percentile | $0 / $770 | the bad night vs the good night |
| Mean finish | $461 | the average — always below $500, by exactly the edge |
| Avg max drawdown | $339 | the hole you sit in along the way |
| Avg spin of ruin | #46 | when busts happen, this is when |
| Realized edge | 2.69% | vs the wheel’s 2.70% — the punchline |
Change the conditions — the price stays
| Variation | Bust rate | Median |
|---|---|---|
| Standard (above) | 32.6% | $690 |
| Double bankroll ($1,000) | 18.3% | $1220 |
| Short session (50 spins) | 19.3% | $605 |
| Long session (200 spins) | 50.9% | $0 |
First 12 spins, played by the book
| # | Bet | Result | Bankroll |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $5 | 0 | $495 |
| 2 | $10 | R | $505 |
| 3 | $5 | B | $500 |
| 4 | $10 | R | $510 |
| 5 | $5 | B | $505 |
| 6 | $10 | B | $495 |
| 7 | $20 | R | $515 |
| 8 | $5 | R | $520 |
| 9 | $5 | B | $515 |
| 10 | $10 | R | $525 |
| 11 | $5 | R | $530 |
| 12 | $5 | B | $525 |
Where exactly the doubling dies at your table: the limit calculator. ▶ Run Martingale yourself — autopilot in the free simulator
Other systems
Flat bettingGrand MartingaleParoli (Reverse Martingale)D'Alembertall 14 →
Frequently asked
Does the Martingale system work?
Not against the edge. Over 1,000,000 sessions it paid the wheel 2.69% of all money wagered — the same price as betting randomly. It does concentrate losses brutally: 33% of bankrolls died within 100 spins.
What bankroll does Martingale need?
Doubling the bankroll to $1,000 moved the bust rate from 32.6% to 18.3% in our runs — a real reduction in bust risk, purchased with more money at the same percentage price.
Is Martingale good for short sessions?
At 50 spins the bust rate was 19.3% (vs 32.6% at 100). Shorter exposure means fewer disasters and less edge paid — which is true of every system, because time on the felt is the only variable that matters.