Fibonacci: bet the Fibonacci number, back two on a win — tested to destruction
ELEGANT MATH, IDENTICAL PRICE⚙ computed
We ran 200,000 sessions of Fibonacci ($5 base on red, $500 bankroll, $500 table max, 100 spins, European wheel). Result: 17.2% of sessions busted, the median player finished at $575, and the realized house edge was 2.73% — statistically identical to the wheel’s 2.70%. A negative progression: it reshapes how you lose, never how much on average.
The distribution — what 200,000 bankrolls did
| Metric | Value | Read it as |
|---|---|---|
| Bust rate | 17.2% | sessions that hit $0 within 100 spins |
| Hit the table max | 0.0% | the cap the system pretends doesn’t exist |
| Median finish | $575 | the typical session — a small win (the hook) |
| 10th / 90th percentile | $0 / $625 | the bad night vs the good night |
| Mean finish | $468 | the average — always below $500, by exactly the edge |
| Avg max drawdown | $214 | the hole you sit in along the way |
| Avg spin of ruin | #55 | when busts happen, this is when |
| Realized edge | 2.73% | vs the wheel’s 2.70% — the punchline |
Change the conditions — the price stays
| Variation | Bust rate | Median |
|---|---|---|
| Standard (above) | 17.2% | $575 |
| Double bankroll ($1,000) | 9.6% | $1075 |
| Short session (50 spins) | 7.8% | $535 |
| Long session (200 spins) | 32.2% | $630 |
First 12 spins, played by the book
| # | Bet | Result | Bankroll |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $5 | 0 | $495 |
| 2 | $5 | R | $500 |
| 3 | $5 | B | $495 |
| 4 | $5 | R | $500 |
| 5 | $5 | B | $495 |
| 6 | $5 | B | $490 |
| 7 | $10 | R | $500 |
| 8 | $5 | R | $505 |
| 9 | $5 | B | $500 |
| 10 | $5 | R | $505 |
| 11 | $5 | R | $510 |
| 12 | $5 | B | $505 |
▶ Run Fibonacci yourself — autopilot in the free simulator
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Frequently asked
Does the Fibonacci system work?
Not against the edge. Over 200,000 sessions it paid the wheel 2.73% of all money wagered — the same price as betting randomly. It changes the shape of results — moderate bust risk, same average cost.
What bankroll does Fibonacci need?
Doubling the bankroll to $1,000 moved the bust rate from 17.2% to 9.6% in our runs — a real reduction in bust risk, purchased with more money at the same percentage price.
Is Fibonacci good for short sessions?
At 50 spins the bust rate was 7.8% (vs 17.2% at 100). Shorter exposure means fewer disasters and less edge paid — which is true of every system, because time on the felt is the only variable that matters.